Bush's two-point convention bounce is one of the smallest registered in Gallup polling history, along with Hubert Humphrey's two-point bounce following the 1968 Democratic convention, George McGovern's zero-point bounce following the 1972 Democratic convention, and Kerry's "negative bounce" of one point among registered voters earlier this year. Bush bounce is the smallest an incumbent president has received.
The difference between Bush's lead among likely voters and the statistical dead heat among registered voters underscores the importance of voter turnout. Kerry does better among the larger pool of registered voters, suggesting that a very high (but probably unrealistic) voter turnout would benefit Kerry if the political conditions remain as they are today. Since 1980, turnout among U.S. adults has averaged 52% in presidential elections. However, the high level of attention being paid to the 2004 election -- 78% of adults in the latest poll say they have given "quite a lot of thought" to it -- suggests a high probability that turnout will be above average this year. Gallup's "likely voter" model at this point assumes 55% of the voting-age population will vote this year...
The last sentence, is very important. Gallup arbitrarily assumes what the turnout will be.
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