Monday, September 20, 2010

Dems gain in State-wide races

The latest Survey USA poll shows gains by Tom Holland for Gov, Atty Gen Steve Six,
Treasurer Dennis McKinney, and Secretary of State Chris Biggs. There's still a long ways to go in these races, but usually when Dems win in the state it is due to late movement.

For Governor, US Senator Sam Brownback and running mate Jeff Colyer today defeat Democrats Tom Holland and Kelly Kultala 59% to 32%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, the Republicans are down 8 points; the Democrats are up 7. Among women, Brownback had led by 35, now leads by 19. Among voters 50+, Brownback had led by 31, now leads by 20. Among the 1 in 3 likely voters who identify themselves as moderates, Holland and Kultala had trailed by 10, now lead by 9, a 19-point swing to the Democrats.

Incumbent Secretary of State Democrat Chris Biggs has gained some ground in his fight against Republican Kris Kobach. Kobach today defeats Biggs by 17 points, 53% to 36%, down from a 32-point margin a month ago. Biggs has gained strength and Kobach has simultaneously lost ground among women, where the two are now essentially even, and to a lesser extent, among voters 50+. Biggs has also found support among moderates, where he had led by a 5, now by 22.

Another Democratic incumbent, Attorney General Steve Six, is also gaining ground against his opponent, Republican Derek Schmidt. Schmidt today defeats Six 50% to 41%, a 9-point lead for the Republican, down from 20 points last month. There has been an 18-point swing toward the Democrat among women, a 12-point swing among older voters, and Six has dramatically improved his standing in southeastern Kansas, where he had trailed by 25 points, and is now neck-and-neck with Schmidt.

The State Treasurer race has also tightened, with Republican Ron Estes today defeating incumbent Democrat Dennis McKinney by 11 points, down from 21 points last month. McKinney, like his fellow incumbents in the Attorney General and Secretary of State offices, is up gaining strength among women, older voters, and moderates.

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