Saturday, February 07, 2009

Sebelius Leads Moran and Tiahrt

Daily Kos and Research 2000 have just released a startlingly good poll for a potential Kathleen Sebelius race against either of the Republican Congressmen who have announced for the GOP Senate nomination. (Hat tip to Moti)

Both Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt trail Sebelius by significant margins.

Sebelius (D) 47
Tiahrt (R) 37


Sebelius (D) 48
Moran (R) 36

Here's what Kos says

Kansas is an exceedingly difficult state for Democrats to compete in. Note that despite Obama's huge popularity around the country, he clocks in only at 48-41 in Kansas. Sure, it's a net positive, and it's numbers that George W. Bush would kill for, but they lag far behind Obama's national numbers. This isn't a hospitable place for Democrats.

Yet here we have Gov. Kathleen Sebelius coming in with a solid 56-37 approval rating, including a surprisingly good 42-54 among Republicans, which is important given that Republicans make up half the state's voters. In the head-to-head matchups, Sebelius, gets about a third of those voters. Independents, another quarter of the voter pool, like her at a 63-27 clip. If those numbers held up, she'd make history by having a Democrat represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1939.

And, here some surprising news. Neither of the right-wing Congressmen does that well in his home district against Sebelius.

In Moran's first distirct
Sebelius 40
Moran 46

In Tiahrt's fourth district
Sebelius 38
Tiahrt 47

Kansas political junkies have been speculating the either Moran or Tiahrt will get cold feet and give up the Senate race for the comfort of safe House seat. Looking at this poll, maybe they'll both decide they don't want to go down as the first Republican since 1932 to lose a Senate seat.

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