Jewish voters and Obama

Jeff Weintraub comments on Matt Yglesias post about the myth of Obama's Jewish problem.

they prefer either Democratic candidate over McCain by very large margins:

Clinton: 66%
McCain: 27%

Obama: 61%
McCain: 32%

=> OK, let's add a small qualification. The 61% figure estimated here does not match the proportions of the Jewish vote that have gone for the Democratic candidate in the most recent Presidential elections.

Jeff goes on to argue that the 61% is a "floor" not a "ceiling" for Obama. There's good reason to think he's right.

Kerry is estimated to have received in the mid-70s of the Jewish vote. But that was in November 2004. How was Kerry doing earlier in 2004? An American Jewish Committee poll in December 2007 showed Kerry with the support of 59 percent of the Jewish vote. By mid-September that had increased to 69 percent.