Thursday, October 04, 2007

About the only safe Republican Senate seats in '08 are the ones that aren't on the ballot," a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. (Washington Post Sept. 2, 2007)

1. Pat Roberts to Too Popular

Pat Roberts is may be well-known, but he is not popular. Survey USA national polls have consistently put his ratings in the low 50s.

In contrast, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius has a 60 percent approval rating.

It is time to take of the kid gloves and tell the truth about Roberts. He is a professional Washington, D.C. politician who is closer to the K Street lobbyists than to main street Kansans. He may be mild-mannered, but he is not moderate. He has fully backed the GOP obstructionist tactics in the Senate.

2. Voter Registration is so overwhelmingly Republican that no Democrat has a chance of winning.


Registration in the state breaks down along these lines 47% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 27% Independent. But this doesn't tell us much about where people really stand political.

A national Gallup poll early this year asked voters whether they "leaned" Democratic or Republican, as well as whether they were Dems or Republicans and they broke the answers down by states.

Here's how the Gallup poll break down for Kansas with leaners included

Democrats and Lean-Democratic 48%
Independent Independents 8%
Republicans and Lean Republican 44%

Other national polls are also showing a strong break for D among independents.

3. Kansans vote Republican when it comes to federal office.

WRONG. Look at the 2006 results for Congress, across the state. Total the results across the state and you’ll see that a Democrat could be elected to the Senate.

Republican Congressional Candidates 2006 Total Votes 456,138 55%

Democratic Congressional Candidates 2006 Total Votes 369,191 45%

4. Hilary or any other D at the top of the ticket will doom the down ticket.

A late August 2007 Survey USA poll shows Hilary Clinton surprisingly close to the leading GOP candidates in Kansas.

Among 502 registered voters in Kansas:

Clinton 40%, Giuliani 54%

Clinton 44%, Thompson 49%

Clinton 45%, Romney 46%

2004 results were Bush 60% Kerry 39%

As Kansas Democrats we have supported Howard Dean’s "50 State Strategy." It is time we held up our part of the deal.

5. Wait until 2010, there’s a much better chance to capture an empty seat when Brownback retires.

WRONG. Brownback may or may not keep his promise to retire. An empty seat is usually easier to capture. But 2008 is shaping up to be a Democratic wave nationally. There are 22 Republicans Senators up versus only 12 Democrats. GOP dollars and resources will be stretched thin. The many favorable circumstances for pull off an upset in 2008 will not be present in 2010. The state Republican party continues to appear to be divided and disarray, the time to strike is now.

6 Roberts is too formidable a candidate.

Roberts miserable failures as Senate Intelligence chair mark him as vulnerable. Let’s call is the Bush-Cheney-Roberts debacle in Iraq. Roberts will be 72 when November 2008 rolls around. He has never faced a first-rate challenge as Congressman or Senator.

Roberts isn’t running like he thinks he in invulnerable. He is running like he is scarred for his political life.

7. No Democrat can be elected to the US Senate from Kansas.

In the last fifty years, there have only been two serious challenges for Senate seats. Dr. Bill Roy in 1974 and Jill Docking in 1996. In both cases, it took dirty tricks to beat them.

Democrats have won statewide offices–Governor, Attorney General, and Insurance Commissioner. There is no reason a Democrat can’t be elected to the United States Senate.

8 Kansas Democrats should concentrate on the lower offices.

A strong campaign for US Senate will help candidates all down the line.

9. None of our top level statewide office holders will run.

Stop whining. Find a candidate. It is not necessary to be or to have been a statewide office holder or a former Congressman to be a Senate candidate. Nancy Kassebaum was a school board member. Paul Wellstone was a college professor. Barak Obama was a state Senator.

10. It’s too late.

Campaigns are starting earlier and it certainly would have been ideal for a challenger to have already launched a campaign. But it is not too late. The opportunities in 2008 are unique and must be grabbed. Kansas campaigns are cheaper than elsewhere in the nation and won’t take as much financing.

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