Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Could Sebelius Win GOP Primary?

Rasmussen's poll released just before Tuesday's primaries shows Democratic Gov Sebelius in very good shape. She has a 17 point lead in a hypothetical match-up with GOP front-runner State Senator Jim Barnett. She had an even larger lead over former House Speaker Robin Jennison. Rasmussen didn't ask about Christian conservative Ken Canfield who is also mounting a serious campaign.

Here are the truly amazing results which prompt our title. Sebelius is viewed favorably by 58% of Republicans, far ahead of Barnett who is viewed faborably by 42 percent and Jennison by 38 percent. In the hypothetical November match-up Sebelius garners thirty percent support from Republican voters. So, if Kansas allowed cross-filing, in a four-way race with Barnett, Jennison, and Canfield, Democratic Governor Kathleen might well win the Republican primary.

The Rasmussen poll

In our latest poll of the gubernatorial race here, conducted two weeks before the August 1 primaries, Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius maintains a comfortable lead over top candidates for the GOP nomination. The poll shows her with leads of 52% to 31% over former state House Speaker Robin Jennison, 51% to 34% over State Senator Jim Barnett.

..... In addition to attracting 87% support from Democrats in each match-up, the governor also wins more than 30% of Republicans, 50% or more of unaffiliated voters, two thirds of moderates.

Sebelius is viewed favorably by 70% of all voters, including 58% of Republicans. Her job approval numbers are also high—even 49% of conservatives at least "somewhat" approve.

Jennison is viewed favorably by 36%, Barnett by 42%. A third of voters don't know either GOP candidate well enough to offer an opinion.

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