Sunday, June 13, 2004

Nader Watch

The Wahington Post reports that

Ralph Nader has run his campaign for president out of the same downtown Washington offices that through April housed a public charity he created -- an overlap that campaign finance specialists said could run afoul of federal laws.


Did Republicans Drive Ralph's Arizona Petition Drive?

The Arizona Democratic Party plans to challenge the signatures to place Ralph Nader on the states ballot American Prospect's election blog quotes a state Democratic worker "based on what we believe were Republican contributions to the signature gathering which could amount to an illegal campaign contribution if not reported. We are suspicious of how many of these were gathered by paid signature gatherers."

The majority of the signatures, according to published reports, were stamped "PAID CIRCULATOR," and local Democrats charge that Arizona Republicans are behind Nader's signature effort. State Democratic Chairman Pederson told the Arizona Republic that his party has found "mounting evidence" that Republican consultant and former Arizona Republican Party executive director Nathan Sproul "is the primary source of money" paying for Nader's petition gatherers. "Over the last several days, we have received information that strongly suggests a coordinated, highly funded secret effort by the Bush campaign, Christian right, and others (to put Nader on the ballot)," said a statement released by the Democrats.

Daily Kos reports that of first 2,000 signatures checked by Democratic volunteers in Phoenix 5 percent have been Democrats, 3 percent "other" or independent, and 92 percent Republican.

Nader Effect Now and Then

Swing State Projects reports

When I see a poll that does a version with and without Nader, I often feel that there's something of a Nader effect - ie, that Ralph is distinctly drawing more votes away from John Kerry than from George Bush. Ed, a frequent commenter here and proprietor of his own blog, Unfutz, has actually crunched the numbers and turned a suspicion into cold, hard fact.

Nationally, says Ed, Nader draws 1.53% from Kerry. It doesn't sound like a lot, but in a very close election, such a margin can mean a great deal. At MyDD, Chris calculates the 2000 Nader effect (based on exit polls) at 0.65%. This means that right now, Nader is hurting Kerry almost a full point worse than he hurt Gore four years ago.

As Chris points out, Nader is likely polling far better now than he actually will on election day. Several polls have shown Nader pulling an implausible 8% in various states. What I'd love to see now is what kind of Nader effect polls in June of 2000 were showing.


The answer: Harris' June 2000 poll had Ralph Nader picking up six points and Pat Buchanan four points, while George W. Bush leads Al Gore by seven percentage points (47 to 40%), among all registered voters.

Don't Vote Ralph

The Don't Vote Ralph website created by former Nader backers, features a cool flash video demolishes Nader's pretension that his candidacy will help defeat Bush. They promise to monitor polls throughout the campaign. In 2004, if you want to defeat Bush, send this flash movie url to all your friends you might be tempted to vote for Ralph.

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